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TRB 91st Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012)
Event Number:541
Event Title:Current Issues in Energy, Climate Change, and Alternative Fuels in Transportation
Event Date:Jan 24 2012 10:45AM- 12:30PM
Event Location:Hilton, International Center
Event Description:
Event Agenda:

Estimation of Energy Use by Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Validating Gamma Distribution for Representing Random Daily Driving Distance (12-2468)
    
The fuel and electricity consumptions of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are sensitive to the variation of daily vehicle miles traveled (DVMT). Though some previous studies have assumed DVMT to follow a Gamma distribution, such an assumption is yet to be validated. This study finds that the Gamma assumption is valid in the context of PHEV energy analysis, based on continuous GPS travel data of 382 vehicles, each tracked for at least 183 days. Small prediction errors, resulting from the Gamma assumption, are found in terms of PHEV fuel use, electricity use, and energy cost. The finding that the Gamma distribution is valid and reliable paves the way for the Gamma distribution to be applied for analyzing energy uses of PHEVs in the real world. The Gamma distribution can be easily specified with very few pieces of driver information and is relatively easy for mathematical manipulation. Validated using real world travel data, the Gamma distribution can now be used with better confidence in a variety of applications, such as developing vehicle consumer choice models, quantifying range anxiety for battery electric vehicles, investigating the role of charging infrastructure, and constructing online calculators that provide personal estimates of PHEV energy use. Keywords — Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), Daily vehicle miles traveled (DVMT), Gamma distribution, Energy consumption

Authors
     Lin, Zhenhong , Oak Ridge National Laboratory
     Dong, Jing , Iowa State University
     Liu, Changzheng , Oak Ridge National Laboratory
     Greene, David L., Oak Ridge National Laboratory


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