Conference Interactive Program
To view the 2013 Annual Meeting Interactive Program
TRB 91st Annual Meeting (January 22-26, 2012)
Highway Safety Performance
Jan 24 2012 7:30PM- 9:30PM
Marriott, Salon 2
Crash Modification Factors: Foundational Issues (12-0326)
Crash Modification Factors (CMFs) are listed in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) and other authoritative publications. Using these one cannot distinguish predictions of safety effect that can be made confidently and are likely to lead correct decisions from those that lead to decisions that can easily be wrong. Nor can one know how transferable are past research results from some circumstances to decisions about future actions to be implemented in different circumstances. The conceptual framework described in this paper aims to be of guidance for future research about CMFs and to meta-analyses thereof. The central claim is that CMFs are random variables with a mean and a standard deviation; that they are not universal constants that apply everywhere and at all times. The smaller the standard deviation of a CMF the more confident can be the related decision-making. Therefore, the aim of research about CMFs is to reduce their standard deviations. Ways to do so efficiently are indicated. The requisite theory and equations are provided.
Hauer, Ezra , University of Toronto, Canada
Bonneson, James A., Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
Council, Forrest M., University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
Srinivasan, Raghavan , University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
Zegeer, Charles V., University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
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Copyright © 2012. National Academy of Sciences. All Rights Reserved.