Paper Details

TRB 90th Annual Meeting (January 23-27, 2011)

Event Number:	479
Event Title:	Current Environmental Issues in Transportation
Event Date:	Jan 25 2011 9:30AM- 12:00PM
Event Location:	Hilton, International Center
Event Description:
Event Agenda:

Dealing with Growth in Predictive Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories of Proposed Residential and Commercial Developments (11-4047)

To facilitate land use and transportation planning decisions that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, planning organizations have begun developing analytical tools to estimate the greenhouse gas impacts of proposed developments. Because these estimates are predictive and changes that result from new developments are complex, carefully selecting boundaries for modeling greenhouse gas emissions inventories can be tricky. The inventory assumptions (which are often unstated) have critical implications for the types and location of emissions sources that are included in the inventory, and thus have the potential to greatly affect the predicted outcomes (but not necessarily the actual outcomes) of modeled planning choices. In this paper we discuss current tools used to predict greenhouse gas emissions from proposed developments, each of which implicitly imposes one growth assumption. We present four different growth assumptions and discuss their applicability and limitations. Using a case study in Yolo County, California as an example we show how variation can arise in predicted emissions using the four growth assumptions. The case study also confirms the importance of including a broad array of emissions sources in residential and commercial development inventories. We close with lessons learned for the design of guidelines for estimating greenhouse gas emissions from proposed developments.

Authors
     Rowan, Dana , University of California, Davis
     Niemeier, Debbie , University of California, Davis